What the world's landfills and open dumps cost us

You put a bag out on collection day, and it disappears. Where it goes depends on where you live. In many parts of the world, it goes to a pile that nobody manages. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reports that the world produced 2.1 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste in 2023. In its Global Waste Management Outlook 2024, written with the International Solid Waste Association, UNEP projects 3.8 billion tonnes by 2050. This post looks at what those numbers mean for landfills and dumps, and where Nexus Biofuel Inc. fits.

Waste is growing faster than the places built to hold it
UNEP's own figures imply an extra 1.7 billion tonnes a year between 2023 and 2050. The World Bank reached a similar picture in an earlier estimate. It put global waste generation at 2.01 billion tonnes in 2016 and projected 3.40 billion tonnes by 2050. The two sources use different baselines, yet both point the same way. Each year the world adds more material than the year before.

A landfill is a finite site. Once it fills, a city needs another one, and land near a city is land that housing and farms also need. A city that cannot afford to haul its waste farther away has fewer choices.

Open dumping and burning
Picture a walk to the edge of a town. You find a slope of mixed waste, plastic bags caught in the grass, and a thin column of smoke rising from one side. The World Bank states that at least 33 percent of the waste the world produces today goes to open dumping or burning. That is at least one tonne in every three.

An open dump has no liner between the waste and the ground. Nobody manages what the waste gives off as it breaks down. When people set the pile on fire to shrink it, the smoke goes wherever the wind sends it.

The bill is already large
UNEP puts the direct cost of waste management in 2020 at an estimated USD 252 billion. Add the hidden costs of pollution, poor health and climate change, and UNEP raises the figure to USD 361 billion. Without urgent action, UNEP says, this annual global cost could almost double to USD 640.3 billion by 2050.

UNEP also modelled a different path. In its circular economy scenario, the world gains a net USD 108.5 billion per year. The two paths differ by what cities and countries choose to do with their waste over the next generation.

Plastic in the pile
The World Bank counted 242 million tonnes of plastic waste in 2016. That is 12 percent of all municipal solid waste. Plastic arrives at landfills and dumps mixed with food scraps, paper and garden waste. Any plan that treats waste as a resource has to deal with that mix.

Why putting waste away does not close the gap
Landfills and open dumps share one feature: they treat waste as something to put away. A pile that is put away still needs land and upkeep for as long as it exists. When the amount of waste grows by 1.7 billion tonnes a year, the pile grows with it.

Nexus Biofuel Inc., based in Kelowna, British Columbia, works on the same pile from a different direction. The company converts waste streams, including biomass and municipal solid waste, into usable energy. Its equipment is portable and economical, and it avoids incineration. Nexus Biofuel aims to cut reliance on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create jobs. The figures above show the scale of the problem. The company's approach is to treat waste as an energy source instead of a disposal cost.